Silver's Republican Death Rattle

I found Silver's article particularly interesting and insightful but I've got a few comments about specific moments. First, his assertion that "it is, in a nutshell, why conservatives don't win elections anymore" in reference to his conversation with John Ziegler seems over the top but I think points to a larger media theme happening here.

It's difficult to look at the 2008 election as being anything other than a massive landslide victory for the Democrats. They reclaimed the Presidency and reasserted, even lengthened, their lead in Congress. By all counts, the Democrats dominated the Republican Party in every imaginable aspect, leading many to signal the death knell for the GOP. Yet, I'm not quite sure that I agree with Silver's assertion that "conservatives don't win elections anymore". To me, Silver's claim strikes me as a hot off the press over exaggeration, an idea that one election (or two if you want to include the 2006 midterms when the Democrats barely squeaked out a majority in the Senate) shows that conservatives don't win elections. Unless I'm mistaken, the GOP enjoyed a majority in Congress from 2000-2006 and had a President in the White House for that same duration, a President that was elected twice. To simply say that because of one horribly performing election cycle, that conservatives don't win elections seems foolish. One could argubly say that if one takes away the past two elections, Democrats had issues with finding themselves on the victorious side in recent times. Silver's claim is technically correct I guess, seeing as how the GOP has lost the past 2 national elections in 2006 and 2008, but to make such a broad sweeping statement rings hollow.

Yet, I don't believe that Silver is the only one pushing this idea. The media in general has the thought that the GOP is in serious trouble and for the short term at least, I agree. Yet, I'm not ready to start heaping the dirt on the coffin. In the long term, there is no telling how the GOP reacts to this election and with as many skilled political operatives on the right as the left, there is no reason to believe that the right won't bounce back in some way. If we need any other evidence that the Democrats Party, of which I'm a proud member, need not rest on their laurels, we need not only recognize the way that Karl Rove and his cronies essentially slapped us around for the past eight years. Its unfortunate for the Rover that he backed such a lame candidate in Bush but given some kind of live wire with, gasp!, intelligence and some legitimate national political experience, is it so hard to believe that he can't put another right winger in the White House in the near future?

GOP Next Steps: Continued.

The story about the next steps for the GOP continues to play a large role in the media. With the recent election results heavily favoring all things Democrat, the Republicans have been left scrambling. As Thomas Edsall points out, or rather asks, the big question is what happens next? How can the Republican return to power? Can they? Colin discussed how older political parties (i.e. the Whigs) would fade away after a bad election cycle last week in class. While I can't imagine that the Republican party will just fade into history, the question that seems to be persisting in the media is a valid one. Does the GOP have to face a radical restructuring of their values and beliefs in order to stay relevant in a world that finds itself quickly distancing itself from the party?

With the next President ready to take office in a little over two months, the candidate the media seemed to favor, how will the media view the losing party? In a way, it reminds me of sports journalism, which I find to be highly reliant on knee jerk reactions. Your team wins, the coach is a genius. Your team loses, its time for the team to radically alter things. Negatives become more glaring in defeat than they ever do in victory. The same goes for positives. Does the GOP really require a massive overhaul or can some minor tweaks change the country's view on the party. The GOP is certainly at a crossroads. Do they stay the course or would that be, as Edsall seems to believe, polishing the brass on the Titanic? Or rather, do they make a few slight roster moves, throw in a trick play or two and reload for next week (or in political speak, the 2010 midterms)?

GOP Next Steps

On the topic of "What Now?", if we step from the Obama White House over to the GOP, the picture is just about as interesting. Prior to the week following the election, I was in the "Sarah Palin is the New Star of the GOP, like it or not." group and was going to be a prominent leader in the party. However, following her meltdown and bickering war with McCain's people, I was skeptical. Yet, with the GOP governors meeting to discuss what the hell happened and how the hell do we fix it, Ms. Palin is firmly back in the spotlight, blowing off a GOP lunch and holding a press conference later today.

If nothing else, the election (obviously) jumped her a number of notches. She used to be a marginal young governor from Alaska but now is the featured attendee in Washington. The question now is whether she'll be able to regain any sort of national political prominance without being laughed off the stage for her gaffs, some of which I'm sure we haven't heard of, from the campaign. The fact that she was launched into the public spotlight unprepared and ill-advised can not be ignored. With some seasoning and the right coaching, can Palin regain her lost luster and go from sideshow to prominance in four years?

The other big question here is how the GOP reacts to Palin. While its clear that she isn't ready to go away and will do what she can to repair her public image, its not quite as clear how the GOP feels about her chances. Does the party want to continue to associate themselves with a ex-VP candidate who alienated pretty much everyone except hardcore conservatives? While she certainly appeals to the Religious Right and party line voters, how will she court the moderates? How does she court the young vote when her views so vehemently oppose the opinions of so many of the under 30 voters in the country?